Lazaro Aleman
reporter3.riverbendnews@gmail.com
Florida and the Big Bend Region can’t seem to catch a break this hurricane season. First it was Debby in August, then Helene in September, and now Milton is heading toward the peninsula, with the potential to affect our region.On the heels of Hurricane Helene, a Category 4 storm that struck the Big Bend a little more than a week ago and caused untold devastation across six states, the National Hurricane Center (NCH) is now warning about Milton, which formed as a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and quickly intensified into a Category 5 storm on Monday then weakened to a Category 4 storm on Tuesday morning.In its 5 a.m. advisory on Tuesday, the National Weather Service (NWS) in Tallahassee confirmed that Milton had intensified over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico into a Category 4 storm and was expected to make landfall along the Florida west coast on Wednesday or Thursday. No significant changes were made in the forecast from Monday into Tuesday.“The wind field is forecast to grow larger as it approaches the west coast of Florida," the NWS stated. “In addition, it will begin to interact with a cold front, which will help to increase winds on the northwest side of the circulation. Thus, tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the Apalachee Bay coastline, and into portions of the Florida Big Bend south and east of the Aucilla River. Note that gusty winds that may not reach tropical storm across much of the area, could still hamper recovery efforts from Helene and cause additional damage to weakened trees or structures.”In addition to the wind threat, according to the NWS, heavy rainfall is likely across the southeast Big Bend.“As Milton interacts with a cold front, a band of heavy rain may materialize that could produce four to seven inches of rain across the lower Suwannee Valley,” the advisory said. “This could result in some localized flash flooding.”Shifts in the storm’s northward track could bring storm surge into the southern areas of Apalachee Bay, as well as tornadoes.“There will be a very sharp cutoff in the higher rainfall amounts on the northwestern side of the Milton, so any subtle shifts in track could bring higher, or lower amounts, of rainfall to those who reside along the current gradient of heavy rain which stretches from Perry to Valdosta,” the NWS stated.As of 5 a.m. on Tuesday, Oct. 8, Milton's winds were 165 miles per hour (mph) and it was moving eastward at 9 mph. A tropical storm warning was in effect for coastal Dixie, Taylor, Lafayette and coastal Wakulla, Franklin and Jefferson Counties.Milton still appears to be tracking toward the Tampa and St. Petersburg area. Even so, the Big Bend is near the outer cone that contains the probable path of the storm. The NWS warned, “Bands of heavy rain from Milton may result in localized flash flooding in the southeast Big Bend,” with rainfall totals possible from 3 inches to 7 inches.Milton comes at a time when residents in the Big Bend are still reeling from the effects of Helene, a monster storm that swept across the area on Sept. 26, causing widespread flooding, damaging surge and extreme wreckage from high winds that topped 140 mph. As of Tuesday, the death toll from Helene exceeded 230 across six states, the third highest among hurricanes that have made landfall in the U.S. since 2000.Regardless of where Milton hits, it is expected to produce heavy rain and potential flooding for large portions of the state, including in the Big Bend area. In a press release on Saturday, Oct. 5, the Federal Emergency Management Agency reported that Milton could bring "storm surge and heavy rainfall to areas recovering from hurricanes Helene and Debby and affect areas far from the coast."